Tawanda Musarurwa
ZIMBABWE is increasingly getting exposed to the effects of climate change, making the performance of the agriculture sector highly-dependent on weather outlook.
According to the International Disaster Database, the country has experienced seven droughts and 12 floods between 2000 and mid-2024.
Analysis of the performance of various agriculture sub-sectors in the five-year period between 2020 and 2024 shows the country’s farmers are caught in the crosswinds of climate volatility.
But, the data also show that steady growth can be achieved despite the weather problems. Maize and tobacco are two of the country’s most important crops. Maize is the primary food source for the majority of Zimbabweans and tobacco is the second biggest foreign currency earner after gold.
Production of the staple crop between 2020 and 2024 shows significant fluctuations, largely influenced by climate change-related droughts.
After a relatively low output of 907 628 tonnes in the 2019/2020 agricultural season, the country experienced a sharp increase to 2,7 million tonnes in 2020/2021, attributed to favourable, albeit La Niña-induced rainfall and improved farming support (the Pfumvudza/Intwasa programme, which was introduced by Government that season).
However, subsequent seasons saw inconsistent yields: 1,56 million tonnes in the 2021/2022 season and a recovery to 2,3 million tonnes in 2022-2023.
The sharp decline (around 72 percent) to an estimated 635 000 tonnes in the 2023/2024 season underscores the growing impact of prolonged drought conditions, exacerbated by El Niño effects and broader climate variability.
Zimbabwe’s reliance on rain-fed agriculture – still the default for over 80 percent of farmers (approximately 1,5 million smallholder farmers) – makes maize production a climate bellwether.
Maize may feed Zimbabwe, but tobacco fuels its economy.
In 2023, the country exported a record 296 million kilogrammes of flue-cured tobacco, generating over US$900 million in revenue. But, this high was preceded and followed by volatility.
Zimbabwe’s tobacco production between 2020 and 2024 reveals both resilience and vulnerability in the face of climate change-related droughts.
At 184 million kg in 2020, the country’s tobacco output steadily increased to 211 million kg in 2021 and 212 million kg in 2022, peaking at a record 296 million kg in 2023.
This growth was supported by strong demand, contract farming schemes and relatively favourable weather.
However, the decline to 231 million kg in 2024 reflects mounting pressure from recurring droughts and erratic rainfall patterns, exacerbated by El Niño effects.
While tobacco is somewhat drought-tolerant compared to food crops like maize, output for 2024 shows that prolonged dry spells and shifting climate conditions can undermine consistent production.
Small grains, big wins
As climate volatility rises, small grains like millet and sorghum have quietly gained ground.
Supported by the Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Fisheries, Water and Rural Development’s climate adaptation drive and the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), production of small grains rose 195 percent between 2021 and 2023.
In 2021, output stood at 95 000 tonnes, increasing significantly to 194 000 tonnes in 2022 and peaking at 280 966 tonnes in 2023. These grains, better suited for arid areas, are critical in food-insecure districts.
Policy interventions
With the country’s maize yields swinging by millions of tonnes and tobacco output rising and falling, agriculture in Zimbabwe has become a real-time case study of how policy pivots can drive climate resilience.
The Pfumvudza/Intwasa programme promotes conservation agriculture – small plots, minimal tillage and organic inputs. Yields on Pfumvudza plots have consistently outperformed conventional fields.
For example, according to data from the Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Fisheries, Water and Rural Development, in the 2020/2021 and 2021/2022 seasons, maize average yield for the Pfumvudza/Intwasa programme was 5,28 tonnes per hectare against the national average of 1,39 tonnes per hectare.
This is approximately 3,8 times greater.
The irrigation equation
One of the most important numbers in local agriculture is not about tonnes or kilogrammes, but hectares of area under irrigation. In 2020, hectares under irrigation stood at just 172 000 hectares.
By 2023, it had reached 217 000.
In 2021, Cabinet approved the Accelerated Irrigation Rehabilitation and Development Plan, with the aim of developing 350 000 hectares for summer irrigation by 2025. The longer term goal is 500 000 hectares by 2030.
According to Lands, Agriculture, Fisheries, Water and Rural Development Minister Dr Anxious Masuka, “the area to be developed is 496 000 hectares made up as current developed 219 000 hectares and 275 000 hectares, additional summer crop area to bring the cumulative available area for summer irrigation from the current 75 000 hectares to 350 000.”
Districts with improved irrigation – such as Chiredzi and Mazowe – have shown greater yield stability.
For example, a 2023 study on A1 resettlement schemes in Mazowe District published in the International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications “concluded that farmer led irrigation had a positive impact in crop productivity of resettled A1 model farmers under the FTLRP (Fast Track Land Reform Programme).”
The importance of irrigation is also highlighted by an analysis of the correlation of the country’s rainfall distribution patterns and maize yields.
A recent overlay of rainfall and yield data by province shows a near-perfect match: more rain, more maize.
The worst-hit provinces – Matabeleland North, South and parts of Midlands – also correlate with historically low rainfall zones.
Although Zimbabwe’s agricultural data over the past five shows the reality of climate change impacts, the numbers also suggest that there is a path forward: effective policy interventions can build climate resilience.
Experts believe this to be true.
“The Government, private sector and NGOs (non-governmental organisations) can improve net farm performances for smallholder farms through increasing training for farmers and helping them acquire more livestock,” say agricultural economist Dr Reneth Mano and researcher Mr Charles Nhemachena in a 2007 World Bank study.
“The irrigation variable was also significant and positive in explaining the variability of net farm revenues.
“This result further emphasises the importance of irrigation for helping farmers, particularly during the winter season and mid-season dry spells in summer.
“Farmers with access to irrigation can cushion themselves against the harsh temperatures and limited rainfall during the dry periods, so promoting irrigation is very important for helping them adapt to further changes in climate.”
ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED IN THE HERALD – https://www.heraldonline.co.zw/climate-change-impact-on-agricultural-output/