The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has significantly downgraded Zimbabwe’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to -5,2% this year.
According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook for April 2019 report, the country will register the negative real GDP growth based on staff estimates of price and exchange rate developments in Zimbabwe.
This is steep slide from an estimated growth of 3.4% last year.
Observers says it was largely expected in view of the number of challenges affecting the local economy in respect of fiscal consolidation, financial sector instability, drought and the longer term effects of Cyclone Idai.
The Bretton Woods institution has also estimated that the local economy will recover in 2020, with a projected GDP growth rate of 3.3% and a further 4% growth in 2021.
In terms of inflation, the IMF expects Zimbabwe’s inflation to close the year at 40.1% and reduce to 4.8% in 2021.
The balance on the current account is projected at -3% in 2019 and -4.6% in 2020.
Market analysts at Morgan & Co however maintain that these still significant value in local equities despite the gloomy outlook.
“We reiterate our stance that investors should seek value preservation opportunities. Direct exposure in real assets such as property provides a hedge against inflation.
“A key strategy involves investing in ZSE-related well managed net exporters or companies with significant export potential. Some of these include Hippo, Padenga, Ariston, SeedCo and SeedCo International,” said the analysts.
Meanwhile, Sub Saharan Africa is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2019, 0.3 percentage points lower than the initial prediction.
Growth prospects for commodity exporters are weighed by the soft outlook for commodity prices, and the countries likely to take the hardest hit are Nigeria and Angola.
Growth for those two countries has been pegged at 2,6% and 3,9%, respectively.