Tawanda Musarurwa

Zimbabwe’s labour market is evolving.

This analysis examines the key employment shifts and their broader economic implications.

Drawing from the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZimStat)’s Quarterly Labour Force Surveys (QLFS) for the fourth quarter of 2021, the second quarter of 2022 and the third quarter of 2024, this analysis highlights both the resilience and the vulnerability of the economy.

And its quiet engine: informal workers.

Key trends at a glance
1. Informal sector dominance – As at the end of Q3, 2024, informal non-agriculture jobs accounted for 43,6 percent of total employment, down from 46,4 percent in 2021. Notwithstanding the 6 percent decline, informal jobs still account for the bulk of employment.

2. Agriculture’s zigzag – Employment in agriculture was 20,3 percent (2021), rising to 21,4 percent in Q2, 2022, before sliding back to 20,3 percent (2024), perhaps reflecting issues such as climate change pressures. The country experienced a severe drought during the 2023/2024 growing season, largely attributed to the El Niño phenomenon.

3. Youths – Youth unemployment (15 – 24 years) surged to 41,2 percent in 2024, from 35,2 percent in 2021, with the NEET (Not in education, employment or training) rate at 48,1 percent in 2024 (from 46,8 percent in 2021).

4. Formal sector stagnation – Formal non-agriculture jobs hovered around 30 percent of employment in Q3, 2024 from 28,9 percent, showing minimal growth despite Government targets.

SECTOR DEEP DIVES
Employees shift from agriculture
Although agriculture remains the backbone of the country’s economy, the sector has seen steady erosion in employment share.

But while the agriculture sector’s share of employment declined between 2021 and 2024, there was a 5 percent increase in the number of employees in the sector, which indicates that the sector’s growth lagged behind that of other sectors.

Data point: In Q4, 2021, 617 055 worked in agriculture; spiking to 695 566 in Q2, 2022 and by Q3, 2024 this had reduced to 648 126.

Why?

Climate shocks (droughts) and limited investment in smallholder farmers have likely pushed workers into informal trading or urban migration.

According to the 2022 Zimbabwe population census, the country is urbanising, with 5,86 million people living in urban areas out of the total population of 15,18 million, a 38,6 percent share, up from 33 percent in 2012.

Meanwhile, the decline agriculture’s share of employment is stark in household-based agriculture, which shrunk from 4,4 percent to 6,1 percent of employment, indicative of the fragility of subsistence farming in a country where rains can be erratic.

Mining: The missing puzzle?
While mining is a key export earner, ZimStat’s QLFS reports lack direct sectoral breakdowns.

However, indirect clues suggest limited job creation.

Formal sector growth (e.g., mining) was muted, rising only 2 percentage points (26 percent to 28,9 percent) from 2021 to 2024.

Informal mining (artisanal) likely absorbed some agricultural workers, but remains uncaptured in official data.

Tourism: A partial recovery
The local tourism sector, hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic, shows glimmers of rebound.

In 2021, the services sector (including tourism) struggled with lockdowns.

As at the end of Q4, 2024, there are signs of improvement, but employment shifts are masked under “informal non-agriculture” (for example, tourism artifacts vendors and tour guides).

This is because while formal tourism jobs (hotels and agencies, for example) are scarce, many workers in the sector rely on gig-based informal roles.

Manufacturing
The country’s manufacturing’s share of employment has barely budged.

In 2021, formal non-agriculture (including manufacturing) was 26 percent.

By 2024 it had risen to 30 percent, but the growth is concentrated in low-value informal production.

Data gap – The QLFS does not isolate manufacturing, but stagnant formal employment suggests the sector is not driving job growth.

Retail and services: The informal lifeline
Retail and services are the economy’s stealth engines, dominated by informal trade.

As at the end of Q3, 2024, informal non-agriculture (retail, repairs, etcetera) accounted for 43,6 percent of jobs.

While the informal trade cushions unemployment, the benefits are limited, for example in relation to retirement.

The country’s statutory social security scheme – National Social Security Authority (NSSA) – is working on a social security scheme targeted at informal sector workers.

Said NSSA deputy director marketing and communication Mr Tendai Mutseyekwa:

“The latest on the informal sector scheme is that we are waiting for ZimStat to present findings of the needs assessment survey, which will inform scheme’s construct.

“It will then be subject to extensive client feedback before trying it on pilot basis. Occupational, safety and health will be included.”

Impact of the informal sector
Informal employment is not just a statistic – it is a reality for many.

The definition of informal employment used by ZimStat includes, unregistered businesses, unpaid family labour and jobs without contracts.

As at the end of Q3, 2024, 63,9 percent of employed Zimbabweans worked informally (agriculture and informal non-agriculture), from 65,9 percent in Q2, 2022. In Q4, 2021 that figure stood at 66,7 percent.

So, although informal employment still accounts for much of the country’s employment, the data shows a gradual decline in the share of Zimbabweans working informally over the past three years.

Interestingly, according to the Q3, 2024 QLFS, 40 percent of informal workers report “wanting more hours”.

This probably means that while the informal economy absorbs workers, it does not always provide adequate income.

For a more condensed picture, statistics from the Finscope Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises Survey Zimbabwe (2022) indicated that the country had 1 639 807 micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) business owners.

The study also has a broadened definition of MSMEs that includes 1,1 million “self-employed individuals”.

This increases the number of MSME owners to 2,7 million, and boosts the sector’s total employment to 3 006 562.

A divided recovery
The story of Zimbabwe’s labour market is two-prong: Although both the mining and manufacturing sectors have registered some growth, but due to issues such as high mechanisation, among others, these formal sectors are failing to effectively absorb labour.

The informal economy is acting as the de facto safety net, but without the requisite safety nets.

Policy implications
The QLFS data trends show that the future of work in Zimbabwe could remain informal for some time, although a downward trend in informality is visible.

The employment-to-population ratio, which measures the proportion of the working-age population that is employed, shows a slight upward trend, rising to 37,2 in Q3, 2024, from 35,4 in Q2 2022 and 33,9 in Q4, 2021.

There is room for policy action:
– With climate change concerns now an ever-present, it is important for Government and its partners to revitalise smallholder farmers with climate-smart grants, for instance.
– To increase formalisation in the economy, Government can incentivise informal businesses to register without overwhelming them with taxes.
– Increasing youth programmes has the potential to address NEET issues, through vocational training tied to sectors like renewable energy, which offer diverse job opportunities.

ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED IN THE HERALD – https://www.heraldonline.co.zw/zimbabwes-evolving-employment-landscape/